But will long-term growth rates be slow? Both writers focus on the
demographics: Mr Brightman cites figures showing that the US population was
growing at 1.8% per annum in the 1950s, 1% in the 1970s and just 0.9% in recent
years. and he says that the recession may make things worse, not better, since
hard times make people more reluctant to have children; population growth
slowed from 1.5% in the first two decades of the 20th century to 0.7% in the
1930s. The US fertility rate in 2011 was the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile,
immigration has also slowed; between 2005 and 2010, net migration from Mexico
was zero.
Mr Grantham reckons that future population growth will be just 0.5% a
year and, when adjusted for fewer hours worked per person, total work hours may
only rise by 0.2% a year. The rise in female participation -a big factor in
growing hours worked in the 1980s and 1990s - seems to have stopped in around
2000
The proportion of the American population aged over 55 has risen from
18% in the 1970s to 25% today and will hit 31% by 2030. As we age, more people
drop out of the workforce. Over the 1990-2010 period, only 29% of the over-55
cohort was in employment, as against 82% of 25-54 year olds. Clearly, fewer
people will be able to afford to retire early in future and this gap will
narrow. But it will still be hard for overall employment to rise. By itself,
this factor will weigh on growth.
But
will long-term growth rates be slow? Both writers focus on the
demographics: Mr Brightman cites figures showing that the US population
was growing at 1.8% per annum in the 1950s, 1% in the 1970s and just
0.9% in recent years. and he says that the recession may make things
worse, not better, since hard times make people more reluctant to have
children; population growth slowed from 1.5% in the first two decades of
the 20th century to 0.7% in the 1930s. The US fertility rate in 2011
was the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile, immigration has also slowed;
between 2005 and 2010, net migration from Mexico was zero
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-growth-will-clobber-government-budget-deficits-2012-11#ixzz2DA9YEtMU
But
will long-term growth rates be slow? Both writers focus on the
demographics: Mr Brightman cites figures showing that the US population
was growing at 1.8% per annum in the 1950s, 1% in the 1970s and just
0.9% in recent years. and he says that the recession may make things
worse, not better, since hard times make people more reluctant to have
children; population growth slowed from 1.5% in the first two decades of
the 20th century to 0.7% in the 1930s. The US fertility rate in 2011
was the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile, immigration has also slowed;
between 2005 and 2010, net migration from Mexico was zero
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-growth-will-clobber-government-budget-deficits-2012-11#ixzz2DA9YEtMU
But
will long-term growth rates be slow? Both writers focus on the
demographics: Mr Brightman cites figures showing that the US population
was growing at 1.8% per annum in the 1950s, 1% in the 1970s and just
0.9% in recent years. and he says that the recession may make things
worse, not better, since hard times make people more reluctant to have
children; population growth slowed from 1.5% in the first two decades of
the 20th century to 0.7% in the 1930s. The US fertility rate in 2011
was the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile, immigration has also slowed;
between 2005 and 2010, net migration from Mexico was zero.
Hours worked are falling...
Mr
Grantham reckons that future population growth will be just 0.5% a year
and, when adjusted for fewer hours worked per person, total work hours
may only rise by 0.2% a year. The rise in female participation -a big
factor in growing hours worked in the 1980s and 1990s - seems to have
stopped in around 2000.
The proportion of the American population aged over 55 has risen from
18% in the 1970s to 25% today and will hit 31% by 2030. As we age, more
people drop out of the workforce. Over the 1990-2010 period, only 29%
of the over-55 cohort was in employment, as against 82% of 25-54 year
olds. Clearly, fewer people will be able to afford to retire early in
future and this gap will narrow. But it will still be hard for overall
employment to rise. By itself, this factor will weigh on growth.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-growth-will-clobber-government-budget-deficits-2012-11#ixzz2DA9Syhoz
But
will long-term growth rates be slow? Both writers focus on the
demographics: Mr Brightman cites figures showing that the US population
was growing at 1.8% per annum in the 1950s, 1% in the 1970s and just
0.9% in recent years. and he says that the recession may make things
worse, not better, since hard times make people more reluctant to have
children; population growth slowed from 1.5% in the first two decades of
the 20th century to 0.7% in the 1930s. The US fertility rate in 2011
was the lowest ever recorded. Meanwhile, immigration has also slowed;
between 2005 and 2010, net migration from Mexico was zero.
Hours worked are falling...
Mr
Grantham reckons that future population growth will be just 0.5% a year
and, when adjusted for fewer hours worked per person, total work hours
may only rise by 0.2% a year. The rise in female participation -a big
factor in growing hours worked in the 1980s and 1990s - seems to have
stopped in around 2000.
The proportion of the American population aged over 55 has risen from
18% in the 1970s to 25% today and will hit 31% by 2030. As we age, more
people drop out of the workforce. Over the 1990-2010 period, only 29%
of the over-55 cohort was in employment, as against 82% of 25-54 year
olds. Clearly, fewer people will be able to afford to retire early in
future and this gap will narrow. But it will still be hard for overall
employment to rise. By itself, this factor will weigh on growth.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-growth-will-clobber-government-budget-deficits-2012-11#ixzz2DA9Syhoz
http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-growth-will-clobber-government-budget-deficits-2012-11
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